{"F": {"ts_code": "002625.SZ", "name": "光启技术", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航空装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航空装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航空装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20111103", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 28.39, "pe_ttm": 98.658, "pb": 6.2247, "dv_ttm": 0.123, "total_mv": 6116874.9402, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.1, 43.8, 41.0, 45.9, 51.4, 49.0], "rev_series": [6.4, 8.6, 11.7, 14.9, 15.6, 20.5], "np_series": [1.6, 2.7, 3.8, 5.8, 6.5, 6.9], "roe_series": [2.1, 3.4, 4.6, 6.8, 7.3, 7.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.3, "np_ttm": 6.2, "ocf_ttm": 8.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 0.1, "ocf_yield": 1.3, "gm_median": 45.9, "gm_std": 3.7, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 2.9, "npm_median": 33.6, "roe_median": 6.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.3, "fix_assets": 25.4, "goodwill_ratio": 2.7, "pb_calc": 6.22, "capex_dep": 4.3, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 17.5, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 44.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 20.6, "np_cagr3": 22.2, "rev_yoy": 19.6, "np_yoy": -17.4, "np_vol": 23.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 57.9, "fwd_pe2": 47.3, "fwd_g1": 70.0, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 2.63, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["超材料产品", 49.0], ["超材料研发业务", 0.0], ["下角料、租赁等", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 2.0, "ret_prev2_year": 229.1, "ret_ytd": -41.7, "ret_pivot": 50.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.8, "ret_60": -22.0, "ret_120": -34.5, "ret_250": -45.0, "mdd_250": -54.1, "vol_250": 41.7, "pos_52w": 49.3}, "S": {"duration": 92, "pricing": 65, "hard": 34, "bondness": 16}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 98.7 倍、股息率 0.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 45.9%、固定资产占比 21%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 45.9%),硬资产占比 21%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 45.9%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 4.30 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 98.7 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -45%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 49%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -22% / -34%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航空装备Ⅱ」48 家中位:PE 73.9 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 32.0% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 36%。", "光启技术:PE 比行业中位高 24.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点。"]}}