{"F": {"ts_code": "002624.SZ", "name": "完美世界", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "游戏Ⅱ", "sw3": "游戏Ⅲ", "ind": "游戏Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20111028", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.16, "pe_ttm": 198.2316, "pb": 3.3247, "dv_ttm": 2.957, "total_mv": 2165004.7344, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [60.3, 61.5, 68.4, 59.7, 57.9, 60.3], "rev_series": [102.2, 85.2, 76.7, 77.9, 55.7, 66.6], "np_series": [15.5, 3.7, 13.8, 4.9, -12.9, 7.3], "roe_series": [15.2, 3.5, 14.2, 5.4, -16.4, 10.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 57.2, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 12.4, "fcf_ttm": 9.3, "fcf_yield": 4.3, "ocf_yield": 5.7, "gm_median": 60.3, "gm_std": 3.6, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 8.1, "npm_median": 7.5, "roe_median": 5.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.8, "fix_assets": 3.0, "goodwill_ratio": 2.1, "pb_calc": 3.32, "capex_dep": 9.49, "interest_debt": 4.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 40.3, "debt_mv": 2.1, "payout": 130.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -4.6, "np_cagr3": -19.0, "rev_yoy": -25.5, "np_yoy": -123.5, "np_vol": 218.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 30, "fwd_pe": 14.5, "fwd_pe2": 10.4, "fwd_g1": 1270.0, "fwd_g2": 39.0, "peg": 0.37, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["PC端网络游戏", 52.0], ["移动网络游戏", 39.0], ["电视剧及短剧", 3.0], ["主机游戏", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 64.4, "ret_prev2_year": -9.7, "ret_ytd": -30.5, "ret_pivot": 49.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.9, "ret_60": -15.5, "ret_120": -41.0, "ret_250": -29.3, "mdd_250": -56.6, "vol_250": 52.7, "pos_52w": 50.4}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 74, "hard": 4, "bondness": 75}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["轻资产现金牛", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 198.2 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 3%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(30 篇研报)前瞻 PE 14.5 倍,次年 10.4 倍,PEG 0.37。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 60.3%),硬资产占比 3%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.3%(经营现金流/市值 5.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 60.3%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 8.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 9.49 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 198.2 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -29%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -16% / -41%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「游戏Ⅱ」26 家中位:PE 24.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 60.8% / 固定资产占比 4% / 分红率 43%。", "完美世界:PE 比行业中位高 173.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.2个百分点。"]}}