{"F": {"ts_code": "002616.SZ", "name": "长青集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "其他能源发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110920", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.87, "pe_ttm": 13.3235, "pb": 1.1751, "dv_ttm": 7.7935, "total_mv": 418438.3868, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.3, 14.9, 16.8, 21.4, 19.5, 22.1], "rev_series": [30.2, 26.5, 34.2, 39.7, 37.9, 36.7], "np_series": [3.5, -1.6, 0.8, 1.6, 2.2, 2.8], "roe_series": [13.6, -6.1, 3.1, 6.2, 7.9, 8.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 35.6, "np_ttm": 3.1, "ocf_ttm": 13.3, "fcf_ttm": 11.8, "fcf_yield": 28.1, "ocf_yield": 31.9, "gm_median": 19.5, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -14.4, "npm_median": 4.1, "roe_median": 6.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 47.3, "fix_assets": 46.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.18, "capex_dep": 0.44, "interest_debt": 50.2, "debt_ebitda": 5.0, "debt_ratio": 63.7, "debt_mv": 120.0, "payout": 84.7, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 2.3, "np_cagr3": 54.2, "rev_yoy": -5.4, "np_yoy": 28.1, "np_vol": 98.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 62.0, "earn_yield": 7.5, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 14.3, "fwd_pe2": 13.2, "fwd_g1": -7.0, "fwd_g2": 9.0, "peg": 1.59, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["电力", 18.0], ["供电", 18.0], ["热力", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": 18.9, "ret_prev2_year": -7.8, "ret_ytd": -6.5, "ret_pivot": 43.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.8, "ret_60": 0.6, "ret_120": -18.0, "ret_250": -20.0, "mdd_250": -37.5, "vol_250": 33.1, "pos_52w": 69.2}, "S": {"duration": 28, "pricing": 44, "hard": 76, "bondness": 92}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 85%、股息率 7.8%、营收 3 年复合 2.3%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 47%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.5%,稳定度 86%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 28.1%(经营现金流/市值 31.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.5%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 47%,资本开支/折旧 0.44 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.3 倍 粗算,约 62%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 1% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "长青集团:PE 比行业中位低 14.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 6.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 13.4个百分点。"]}}