{"F": {"ts_code": "002615.SZ", "name": "哈尔斯", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "其他家居用品", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110909", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.54, "pe_ttm": 132.0687, "pb": 1.5307, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 366116.9172, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.7, 26.1, 29.2, 31.2, 28.0, 25.3], "rev_series": [14.9, 23.9, 24.3, 24.1, 33.3, 32.4], "np_series": [-0.3, 1.4, 2.1, 2.5, 2.9, 0.7], "roe_series": [-3.3, 15.4, 17.5, 17.4, 18.0, 4.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 34.4, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 2.9, "fcf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_yield": -1.6, "ocf_yield": 7.8, "gm_median": 28.0, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 2.6, "npm_median": 8.2, "roe_median": 17.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 36.8, "fix_assets": 16.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 1.53, "capex_dep": 3.35, "interest_debt": 6.7, "debt_ebitda": 2.6, "debt_ratio": 45.0, "debt_mv": 18.2, "payout": 29.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 10.1, "np_cagr3": -30.1, "rev_yoy": 12.8, "np_yoy": -46.5, "np_vol": 234.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 17.0, "fwd_pe2": 11.0, "fwd_g1": 678.0, "fwd_g2": 54.0, "peg": 0.31, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["真空器皿", 89.0], ["铝瓶及其他", 9.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -0.4, "ret_prev2_year": 10.3, "ret_ytd": -14.7, "ret_pivot": 0.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.2, "ret_60": -18.5, "ret_120": -25.2, "ret_250": -25.6, "mdd_250": -36.2, "vol_250": 38.0, "pos_52w": 67.8}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 56, "hard": 59, "bondness": 28}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 132.1 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 28.0%、固定资产占比 37%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 37%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 28.0%,稳定度 92%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.6%(经营现金流/市值 7.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.0%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 3.35 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 132.1 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -18% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "哈尔斯:PE 比行业中位高 103.8倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.2个百分点。"]}}