{"F": {"ts_code": "002613.SZ", "name": "北玻股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "玻璃玻纤", "sw3": "玻璃制造", "ind": "玻璃玻纤", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110830", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.44, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.7102, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 378595.6328, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.5, 19.1, 20.6, 26.6, 26.0, 26.9], "rev_series": [10.7, 17.0, 15.0, 16.6, 16.3, 15.7], "np_series": [0.1, 0.5, 0.4, 0.8, 0.6, 0.3], "roe_series": [0.9, 3.6, 2.2, 5.0, 3.1, 1.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.9, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 2.8, "ocf_yield": 5.0, "gm_median": 26.0, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": 1.1, "npm_median": 3.5, "roe_median": 3.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 23.0, "fix_assets": 6.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.71, "capex_dep": 2.25, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 23.1, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 60.8, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 1.7, "np_cagr3": -4.1, "rev_yoy": -21.3, "np_yoy": -85.6, "np_vol": 135.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["深加工玻璃", 21.0], ["玻璃钢化设备", 18.0], ["真空镀膜设备", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -7.2, "ret_prev2_year": -16.7, "ret_ytd": -7.5, "ret_pivot": 3.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.0, "ret_60": -28.5, "ret_120": -15.9, "ret_250": -21.3, "mdd_250": -45.6, "vol_250": 47.3, "pos_52w": 63.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 52, "hard": 37, "bondness": 40}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 23%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 5.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 23%,毛利率近 5 年中位 26.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%(经营现金流/市值 5.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.0%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 23%,资本开支/折旧 2.25 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -28% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「玻璃玻纤」16 家中位:PE 68.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 22.1% / 固定资产占比 53% / 分红率 37%。", "北玻股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 30.2个百分点。"]}}