{"F": {"ts_code": "002609.SZ", "name": "捷顺科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110815", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.86, "pe_ttm": 77.8952, "pb": 2.1219, "dv_ttm": 1.0753, "total_mv": 505742.8968, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [44.8, 45.4, 42.4, 41.5, 39.8, 39.6], "rev_series": [13.7, 15.0, 13.8, 16.4, 15.8, 17.4], "np_series": [1.6, 1.6, 0.2, 1.1, 0.3, 0.6], "roe_series": [7.5, 7.1, 0.8, 4.7, 1.3, 2.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.2, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 4.8, "fcf_ttm": 4.0, "fcf_yield": 7.9, "ocf_yield": 9.4, "gm_median": 41.5, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -2.4, "npm_median": 3.7, "roe_median": 2.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.3, "fix_assets": 1.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.8, "pb_calc": 2.12, "capex_dep": 4.67, "interest_debt": 5.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 36.3, "debt_mv": 10.4, "payout": 85.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 8.2, "np_cagr3": 51.9, "rev_yoy": 9.9, "np_yoy": 3.3, "np_vol": 223.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 39.3, "fwd_pe2": 30.8, "fwd_g1": 98.0, "fwd_g2": 27.0, "peg": 1.46, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["停车资产运营", 32.0], ["智能硬件", 25.0], ["软件销售收入", 15.0], ["软件及云服务", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": 13.6, "ret_prev2_year": -27.2, "ret_ytd": -14.6, "ret_pivot": 15.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.1, "ret_60": 7.5, "ret_120": -11.4, "ret_250": -33.0, "mdd_250": -40.9, "vol_250": 33.3, "pos_52w": 65.4}, "S": {"duration": 86, "pricing": 60, "hard": 7, "bondness": 52}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["轻资产现金牛", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 77.9 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 4%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(2 篇研报)前瞻 PE 39.3 倍,次年 30.8 倍,PEG 1.46。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 41.5%),硬资产占比 4%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.9%(经营现金流/市值 9.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 41.5%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 4.67 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 77.9 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -33%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / 8% / -11%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "捷顺科技:PE 比行业中位低 6.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.3个百分点。"]}}