{"F": {"ts_code": "002608.SZ", "name": "江苏国信", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "火力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110810", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.38, "pe_ttm": 9.4954, "pb": 0.7456, "dv_ttm": 1.7615, "total_mv": 2788222.8186, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.7, -5.2, 0.1, 9.6, 11.4, 13.6], "rev_series": [206.2, 280.1, 315.6, 336.9, 359.5, 346.1], "np_series": [22.7, -3.4, 0.7, 18.7, 32.4, 34.7], "roe_series": [8.1, -1.2, 0.2, 6.6, 10.6, 10.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 363.6, "np_ttm": 32.6, "ocf_ttm": 71.9, "fcf_ttm": 6.0, "fcf_yield": 2.1, "ocf_yield": 25.8, "gm_median": 9.6, "gm_std": 7.2, "gm_stab": 0.25, "gm_chg_2022": -14.6, "npm_median": 8.6, "roe_median": 6.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 46.8, "fix_assets": 491.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.74, "capex_dep": 2.14, "interest_debt": 377.3, "debt_ebitda": 5.7, "debt_ratio": 49.8, "debt_mv": 135.3, "payout": 14.2, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 3.1, "np_cagr3": 270.4, "rev_yoy": 11.5, "np_yoy": -22.5, "np_vol": 1199.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 47.0, "earn_yield": 10.5, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 10.0, "fwd_pe2": 9.4, "fwd_g1": -5.0, "fwd_g2": 7.0, "peg": 1.43, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电力", 82.0], ["煤炭", 8.0], ["热力", 4.0], ["金融", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -2.4, "ret_prev2_year": 19.2, "ret_ytd": 1.7, "ret_pivot": 12.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.1, "ret_60": -14.3, "ret_120": -12.7, "ret_250": -3.4, "mdd_250": -36.5, "vol_250": 33.9, "pos_52w": 71.2}, "S": {"duration": 21, "pricing": 17, "hard": 75, "bondness": 47}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 9.5 倍、股息率 1.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 9.6%、固定资产占比 47%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 47%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 9.6%,稳定度 25%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.1%(经营现金流/市值 25.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.6%,稳定度 25%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 47%,资本开支/折旧 2.14 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 9.5 倍 粗算,约 47%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -3%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -14% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "江苏国信:PE 比行业中位低 18.3倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 13.9个百分点。"]}}