{"F": {"ts_code": "002606.SZ", "name": "大连电瓷", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "线缆部件及其他", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110805", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.14, "pe_ttm": 18.0288, "pb": 2.8167, "dv_ttm": 0.3693, "total_mv": 576942.1848, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.3, 38.3, 31.0, 26.4, 34.5, 32.1], "rev_series": [8.7, 9.3, 12.1, 8.4, 15.0, 17.8], "np_series": [1.1, 1.6, 1.8, 0.5, 2.1, 2.1], "roe_series": [10.6, 12.9, 12.6, 3.4, 12.9, 11.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.6, "np_ttm": 3.2, "ocf_ttm": 5.1, "fcf_ttm": 4.3, "fcf_yield": 7.4, "ocf_yield": 8.8, "gm_median": 32.1, "gm_std": 3.9, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -5.3, "npm_median": 14.0, "roe_median": 12.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.5, "fix_assets": 6.7, "goodwill_ratio": 2.3, "pb_calc": 2.82, "capex_dep": 1.27, "interest_debt": 3.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 34.3, "debt_mv": 5.5, "payout": 10.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 13.8, "np_cagr3": 5.4, "rev_yoy": 48.6, "np_yoy": 232.2, "np_vol": 128.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 72.0, "earn_yield": 5.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["悬瓷绝缘子", 40.0], ["复合绝缘子", 6.0], ["瓷支柱绝缘子", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -4.9, "ret_prev2_year": 17.9, "ret_ytd": 51.0, "ret_pivot": 56.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.8, "ret_60": -0.8, "ret_120": -0.2, "ret_250": 30.7, "mdd_250": -29.8, "vol_250": 50.5, "pos_52w": 74.6}, "S": {"duration": 36, "pricing": 51, "hard": 34, "bondness": 14}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 18.0 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 32.1%、固定资产占比 22%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 32.1%),硬资产占比 22%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.4%(经营现金流/市值 8.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.1%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 1.27 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.0 倍 粗算,约 72%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 31%,最大回撤 -30%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -1% / -0%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "大连电瓷:PE 比行业中位低 25.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.6个百分点。"]}}