{"F": {"ts_code": "002605.SZ", "name": "姚记科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "游戏Ⅱ", "sw3": "游戏Ⅲ", "ind": "游戏Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110805", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.36, "pe_ttm": 16.9587, "pb": 1.9275, "dv_ttm": 2.8773, "total_mv": 724896.8328, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [62.4, 48.0, 48.0, 43.1, 43.4, 43.5], "rev_series": [25.6, 38.1, 31.6, 37.6, 32.7, 26.9], "np_series": [10.9, 5.7, 3.5, 5.6, 5.4, 4.7], "roe_series": [61.5, 25.5, 13.5, 19.0, 16.0, 12.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 25.7, "np_ttm": 4.3, "ocf_ttm": 4.2, "fcf_ttm": 2.7, "fcf_yield": 3.7, "ocf_yield": 5.8, "gm_median": 43.5, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -14.4, "npm_median": 17.2, "roe_median": 16.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.8, "fix_assets": 8.4, "goodwill_ratio": 22.4, "pb_calc": 1.89, "capex_dep": 2.56, "interest_debt": 7.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 27.7, "debt_mv": 10.9, "payout": 44.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -5.2, "np_cagr3": 10.3, "rev_yoy": -8.1, "np_yoy": -15.5, "np_vol": 38.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 71.0, "earn_yield": 5.9, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 13.8, "fwd_pe2": 12.1, "fwd_g1": 23.0, "fwd_g2": 14.0, "peg": 0.99, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["扑克牌", 15.0], ["数字营销", 15.0], ["游戏运营", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": -11.1, "ret_prev2_year": 26.3, "ret_ytd": -23.9, "ret_pivot": -5.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.8, "ret_60": -4.2, "ret_120": -23.1, "ret_250": -36.5, "mdd_250": -44.2, "vol_250": 34.5, "pos_52w": 58.4}, "S": {"duration": 35, "pricing": 59, "hard": 25, "bondness": 56}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商誉占比高", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 17.0 倍、股息率 2.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 43.5%、固定资产占比 16%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 43.5%),硬资产占比 16%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.7%(经营现金流/市值 5.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 43.5%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 2.56 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.0 倍 粗算,约 71%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -4% / -23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「游戏Ⅱ」26 家中位:PE 24.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 60.8% / 固定资产占比 4% / 分红率 43%。", "姚记科技:PE 比行业中位低 7.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 17.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.8个百分点。"]}}