{"F": {"ts_code": "002602.SZ", "name": "世纪华通", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "游戏Ⅱ", "sw3": "游戏Ⅲ", "ind": "游戏Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110728", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.73, "pe_ttm": 15.5594, "pb": 3.3881, "dv_ttm": 0.38, "total_mv": 11594083.2579, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [54.2, 55.1, 51.5, 60.5, 65.8, 69.9], "rev_series": [149.8, 139.3, 114.8, 132.8, 226.2, 379.0], "np_series": [29.5, 23.3, -67.5, 5.2, 12.1, 56.1], "roe_series": [8.0, 8.6, -25.2, 2.2, 4.9, 20.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 428.1, "np_ttm": 74.5, "ocf_ttm": 91.4, "fcf_ttm": 81.4, "fcf_yield": 7.0, "ocf_yield": 7.9, "gm_median": 60.5, "gm_std": 6.7, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -2.7, "npm_median": 4.6, "roe_median": 4.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.9, "fix_assets": 18.2, "goodwill_ratio": 24.8, "pb_calc": 3.39, "capex_dep": 5.83, "interest_debt": 28.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 26.3, "debt_mv": 2.4, "payout": 7.7, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 48.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 28.5, "np_yoy": 69.5, "np_vol": 238.5, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 68.0, "earn_yield": 6.4, "consensus_n": 17, "fwd_pe": 12.9, "fwd_pe2": 10.8, "fwd_g1": 20.0, "fwd_g2": 20.0, "peg": 0.65, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["移动网络游戏", 30.0], ["移动端游戏", 30.0], ["电脑端游戏", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 234.6, "ret_prev2_year": -0.4, "ret_ytd": -7.5, "ret_pivot": 397.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 14.2, "ret_60": 6.4, "ret_120": -6.0, "ret_250": 13.3, "mdd_250": -44.0, "vol_250": 47.3, "pos_52w": 71.8}, "S": {"duration": 32, "pricing": 67, "hard": 6, "bondness": 6}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["轻资产现金牛", "商誉占比高", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 70%,PE TTM 15.6 倍 但前瞻 PE 12.9 倍,PEG 0.65。", "自由现金流 81.4 亿(正),次年预期增速 20%(17 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 60.5%),硬资产占比 4%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.0%(经营现金流/市值 7.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 60.5%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 5.83 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 15.6 倍 粗算,约 68%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 13%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 14% / 6% / -6%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「游戏Ⅱ」26 家中位:PE 24.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 60.8% / 固定资产占比 4% / 分红率 43%。", "世纪华通:PE 比行业中位低 9.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点。"]}}