{"F": {"ts_code": "002601.SZ", "name": "龙佰集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "钛白粉", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110715", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.85, "pe_ttm": 53.7452, "pb": 1.656, "dv_ttm": 0.6274, "total_mv": 3779033.08, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.3, 41.9, 30.2, 26.7, 25.0, 21.1], "rev_series": [141.1, 205.7, 241.1, 267.6, 275.1, 259.7], "np_series": [22.9, 46.8, 34.2, 32.3, 21.7, 12.4], "roe_series": [16.3, 28.2, 17.2, 14.9, 9.5, 5.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 270.5, "np_ttm": 7.0, "ocf_ttm": 43.0, "fcf_ttm": 18.4, "fcf_yield": 4.9, "ocf_yield": 11.4, "gm_median": 26.7, "gm_std": 7.1, "gm_stab": 0.73, "gm_chg_2022": -5.2, "npm_median": 12.1, "roe_median": 14.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.3, "fix_assets": 273.2, "goodwill_ratio": 9.7, "pb_calc": 1.66, "capex_dep": 0.87, "interest_debt": 229.2, "debt_ebitda": 4.3, "debt_ratio": 55.6, "debt_mv": 60.7, "payout": 98.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.5, "np_cagr3": -28.6, "rev_yoy": 8.1, "np_yoy": -39.1, "np_vol": 53.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.9, "consensus_n": 18, "fwd_pe": 22.8, "fwd_pe2": 14.9, "fwd_g1": 135.0, "fwd_g2": 53.0, "peg": 0.43, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["钛白粉", 29.0], ["海绵钛", 5.0], ["其他主营业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 14.7, "ret_prev2_year": 9.2, "ret_ytd": -19.1, "ret_pivot": -2.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.2, "ret_60": 10.0, "ret_120": -18.9, "ret_250": -14.5, "mdd_250": -40.3, "vol_250": 38.6, "pos_52w": 67.9}, "S": {"duration": 74, "pricing": 43, "hard": 71, "bondness": 69}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 53.7 倍、股息率 0.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 26.7%、固定资产占比 44%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 44%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 26.7%,稳定度 73%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.9%(经营现金流/市值 11.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.7%,稳定度 73%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 0.87 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 53.7 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 10% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "龙佰集团:PE 比行业中位高 17.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.1个百分点。"]}}