{"F": {"ts_code": "002599.SZ", "name": "盛通股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "包装印刷", "sw3": "印刷", "ind": "包装印刷", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110715", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.83, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.5853, "dv_ttm": 0.169, "total_mv": 315178.4284, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.7, 19.9, 15.6, 15.0, 15.3, 15.1], "rev_series": [20.4, 24.1, 22.4, 24.0, 20.5, 20.4], "np_series": [-3.5, 0.7, 0.0, 0.0, -1.9, 0.1], "roe_series": [-22.2, 4.9, 0.3, 0.3, -14.3, 0.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 19.4, "np_ttm": -0.0, "ocf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 1.1, "ocf_yield": 6.3, "gm_median": 15.3, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -1.1, "npm_median": 0.2, "roe_median": 0.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 40.6, "fix_assets": 8.7, "goodwill_ratio": 1.3, "pb_calc": 2.59, "capex_dep": 2.06, "interest_debt": 0.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 42.6, "debt_mv": 2.7, "payout": 150.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -3.1, "np_cagr3": 15.9, "rev_yoy": -9.5, "np_yoy": -176.4, "np_vol": 1921.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["印刷综合服务-出版印刷", 26.0], ["出版物印刷", 26.0], ["印刷综合服务-包装印刷", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 15.3, "ret_prev2_year": 11.8, "ret_ytd": -31.7, "ret_pivot": 23.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.9, "ret_60": 0.5, "ret_120": -21.1, "ret_250": -38.7, "mdd_250": -46.8, "vol_250": 33.2, "pos_52w": 62.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 45, "hard": 65, "bondness": 58}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 41%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 41%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.3%,稳定度 88%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.1%(经营现金流/市值 6.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.3%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 41%,资本开支/折旧 2.06 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -39%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / 0% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「包装印刷」46 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 50%。", "盛通股份:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.8个百分点。"]}}