{"F": {"ts_code": "002597.SZ", "name": "金禾实业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "食品及饲料添加剂", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110707", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.07, "pe_ttm": 44.5995, "pb": 1.5039, "dv_ttm": 0.9389, "total_mv": 1197450.0293, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.1, 28.2, 35.2, 23.5, 19.2, 17.3], "rev_series": [36.7, 58.5, 72.5, 53.1, 53.0, 49.1], "np_series": [7.2, 11.8, 17.0, 7.0, 5.6, 3.5], "roe_series": [15.2, 21.8, 26.3, 9.9, 7.6, 4.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 55.0, "np_ttm": 2.7, "ocf_ttm": 8.6, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.2, "ocf_yield": 7.2, "gm_median": 23.5, "gm_std": 6.5, "gm_stab": 0.73, "gm_chg_2022": 8.1, "npm_median": 13.3, "roe_median": 9.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 42.0, "fix_assets": 46.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.5, "capex_dep": 1.83, "interest_debt": 14.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 27.7, "debt_mv": 11.8, "payout": 31.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -12.2, "np_cagr3": -41.1, "rev_yoy": 24.3, "np_yoy": -23.5, "np_vol": 47.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 15, "fwd_pe": 17.8, "fwd_pe2": 14.2, "fwd_g1": 151.0, "fwd_g2": 25.0, "peg": 0.71, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 42.0], ["食品添加剂", 19.0], ["大宗化工原料", 15.0], ["大宗化学品", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": -5.7, "ret_prev2_year": 5.4, "ret_ytd": 2.5, "ret_pivot": -2.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.0, "ret_60": 4.2, "ret_120": -16.8, "ret_250": -11.7, "mdd_250": -34.1, "vol_250": 40.8, "pos_52w": 74.9}, "S": {"duration": 67, "pricing": 49, "hard": 67, "bondness": 42}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 44.6 倍、股息率 0.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.5%、固定资产占比 42%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 42%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.5%,稳定度 73%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.2%(经营现金流/市值 7.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.5%,稳定度 73%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 8.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 1.83 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 44.6 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 4% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "金禾实业:PE 比行业中位高 8.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.5个百分点。"]}}