{"F": {"ts_code": "002596.SZ", "name": "海南瑞泽", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "水泥", "sw3": "水泥制品", "ind": "水泥", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110707", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.4, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 8.168, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 390177.37, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.5, 13.1, 12.1, 15.5, 10.5, 7.0], "rev_series": [29.0, 27.8, 19.3, 17.1, 13.0, 11.7], "np_series": [0.4, -11.4, -4.9, -5.1, -2.4, -2.1], "roe_series": [1.3, -44.4, -28.3, -40.7, -27.8, -33.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.0, "np_ttm": -2.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 1.5, "gm_median": 12.1, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.77, "gm_chg_2022": -8.3, "npm_median": -28.0, "roe_median": -33.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.9, "fix_assets": 1.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 8.17, "capex_dep": 0.47, "interest_debt": 12.5, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 85.7, "debt_mv": 32.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -15.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -27.5, "np_yoy": 16.2, "np_vol": 1153.1, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["商品混凝土", 38.0], ["市政环卫", 11.0], ["其他业务收入", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 52.3, "ret_prev2_year": 25.5, "ret_ytd": -36.9, "ret_pivot": 92.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.6, "ret_60": -5.6, "ret_120": -16.3, "ret_250": -11.0, "mdd_250": -59.8, "vol_250": 53.8, "pos_52w": 50.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 37, "hard": 8, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -2.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 5 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 86%,有息负债 12 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 5%,毛利率近 5 年中位 12.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.1%,稳定度 77%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 0.47 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / -6% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「水泥」21 家中位:PE 19.9 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 17.5% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "海南瑞泽:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 26.9个百分点。"]}}