{"F": {"ts_code": "002595.SZ", "name": "豪迈科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110628", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 42.4, "pe_ttm": 21.1078, "pb": 3.9791, "dv_ttm": 1.6265, "total_mv": 4918400.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.6, 28.5, 28.1, 34.7, 34.3, 33.6], "rev_series": [52.9, 60.1, 66.4, 71.7, 88.1, 110.8], "np_series": [10.1, 10.5, 12.0, 16.1, 20.1, 23.9], "roe_series": [18.8, 17.2, 17.3, 20.2, 21.8, 21.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 118.3, "np_ttm": 23.3, "ocf_ttm": 10.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.0, "ocf_yield": 2.0, "gm_median": 33.6, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -2.5, "npm_median": 21.6, "roe_median": 20.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.1, "fix_assets": 40.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.98, "capex_dep": 2.66, "interest_debt": 0.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 19.9, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 30.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 18.6, "np_cagr3": 25.9, "rev_yoy": 14.3, "np_yoy": -5.3, "np_vol": 10.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.7, "consensus_n": 17, "fwd_pe": 13.4, "fwd_pe2": 11.2, "fwd_g1": 57.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 0.64, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["模具", 25.0], ["大型零部件机械产品", 16.0], ["其他主营业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 71.2, "ret_prev2_year": 78.3, "ret_ytd": -26.4, "ret_pivot": 52.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -19.1, "ret_60": -15.2, "ret_120": -31.5, "ret_250": 4.5, "mdd_250": -37.2, "vol_250": 40.6, "pos_52w": 63.0}, "S": {"duration": 41, "pricing": 54, "hard": 42, "bondness": 22}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 21.1 倍、股息率 1.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 33.6%、固定资产占比 26%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.6%),硬资产占比 26%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.0%(经营现金流/市值 2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.6%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 2.66 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.1 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 4%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -19% / -15% / -32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "豪迈科技:PE 比行业中位低 21.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.1个百分点。"]}}