{"F": {"ts_code": "002594.SZ", "name": "比亚迪", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "乘用车", "sw3": "电动乘用车", "ind": "乘用车", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110630", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 87.4, "pe_ttm": 27.0723, "pb": 3.3206, "dv_ttm": 0.4096, "total_mv": 79684306.15, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.4, 13.0, 17.0, 20.2, 19.4, 17.7], "rev_series": [1566.0, 2161.4, 4240.6, 6023.2, 7771.0, 8039.6], "np_series": [42.3, 30.5, 166.2, 300.4, 402.5, 326.2], "roe_series": [7.5, 4.0, 16.1, 24.0, 24.8, 15.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7775.0, "np_ttm": 294.3, "ocf_ttm": 646.4, "fcf_ttm": -563.5, "fcf_yield": -7.1, "ocf_yield": 8.1, "gm_median": 17.7, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -2.3, "npm_median": 4.2, "roe_median": 16.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.6, "fix_assets": 3259.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 3.06, "capex_dep": 1.63, "interest_debt": 1322.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 71.0, "debt_mv": 16.6, "payout": 28.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 23.8, "np_cagr3": 25.2, "rev_yoy": -7.1, "np_yoy": -20.5, "np_vol": 176.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.7, "consensus_n": 33, "fwd_pe": 19.9, "fwd_pe2": 15.6, "fwd_g1": 36.0, "fwd_g2": 28.0, "peg": 0.71, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["汽车、汽车相关产品及其他产品", 27.0], ["汽车", 27.0], ["电子及其他产品", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.2, "ret_prev2_year": 46.2, "ret_ytd": -10.2, "ret_pivot": 7.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.9, "ret_60": -2.3, "ret_120": -12.0, "ret_250": -21.4, "mdd_250": -31.5, "vol_250": 28.9, "pos_52w": 76.9}, "S": {"duration": 49, "pricing": 45, "hard": 55, "bondness": 16}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 35%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 35%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.7%,稳定度 86%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -7.1%(经营现金流/市值 8.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.7%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 1.63 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 27.1 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -2% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「乘用车」8 家中位:PE 27.1 / 股息率 2.3% / 毛利率 10.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "比亚迪:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位低 1.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 20.8个百分点。"]}}