{"F": {"ts_code": "002589.SZ", "name": "瑞康医药", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医药商业", "sw3": "医药流通", "ind": "医药商业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110610", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.22, "pe_ttm": 535.9682, "pb": 0.9127, "dv_ttm": 0.0607, "total_mv": 484516.7488, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.3, 18.2, 13.6, 10.3, 11.0, 10.6], "rev_series": [272.0, 210.6, 123.1, 80.3, 79.7, 73.0], "np_series": [2.6, 1.3, -18.3, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2], "roe_series": [3.6, 1.7, -28.2, 0.4, 0.4, 0.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 71.7, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.6, "ocf_yield": -0.1, "gm_median": 11.0, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.73, "gm_chg_2022": -4.7, "npm_median": 0.5, "roe_median": 0.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.5, "fix_assets": 20.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.9, "pb_calc": 0.91, "capex_dep": -0.3, "interest_debt": 51.8, "debt_ebitda": 18.3, "debt_ratio": 65.8, "debt_mv": 106.9, "payout": 80.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -16.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -3.6, "np_yoy": -38.7, "np_vol": 608.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["药品销售", 40.0], ["药品", 40.0], ["器械销售", 9.0], ["器械", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 8.6, "ret_prev2_year": -8.6, "ret_ytd": 0.1, "ret_pivot": 40.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.9, "ret_60": 22.1, "ret_120": 2.0, "ret_250": 5.0, "mdd_250": -47.8, "vol_250": 51.6, "pos_52w": 68.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 35, "hard": 20, "bondness": 63}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 536.0 倍,估值里约 99% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 12%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 12%,毛利率近 5 年中位 11.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.6%(经营现金流/市值 -0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.0%,稳定度 73%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 -0.30 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 536.0 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 5%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 22% / 2%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医药商业」32 家中位:PE 22.5 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 13.4% / 固定资产占比 7% / 分红率 38%。", "瑞康医药:PE 比行业中位高 513.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 2.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.3个百分点。"]}}