{"F": {"ts_code": "002588.SZ", "name": "史丹利", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "复合肥", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110610", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.08, "pe_ttm": 9.5878, "pb": 1.1936, "dv_ttm": 3.8985, "total_mv": 930728.736, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.1, 18.3, 14.2, 17.5, 18.2, 18.1], "rev_series": [61.8, 64.4, 90.4, 99.9, 102.6, 122.8], "np_series": [2.9, 4.3, 4.4, 7.0, 8.3, 10.3], "roe_series": [6.4, 8.8, 8.4, 12.1, 12.8, 14.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 128.3, "np_ttm": 9.7, "ocf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_ttm": -4.0, "fcf_yield": -4.3, "ocf_yield": 2.2, "gm_median": 18.1, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -3.9, "npm_median": 7.2, "roe_median": 12.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 33.9, "fix_assets": 49.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.9, "pb_calc": 1.19, "capex_dep": 1.42, "interest_debt": 22.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 40.3, "debt_mv": 24.4, "payout": 35.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 10.8, "np_cagr3": 32.8, "rev_yoy": 8.5, "np_yoy": -10.3, "np_vol": 20.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 48.0, "earn_yield": 10.4, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 8.8, "fwd_pe2": 7.3, "fwd_g1": 9.0, "fwd_g2": 20.0, "peg": 0.44, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["氯基复合肥产品", 29.0], ["氯基复合肥", 29.0], ["新型肥料及其他", 16.0], ["硫基复合肥产品", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 42.7, "ret_prev2_year": 19.9, "ret_ytd": -16.8, "ret_pivot": 33.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.6, "ret_60": -5.6, "ret_120": -30.0, "ret_250": -14.5, "mdd_250": -33.6, "vol_250": 35.2, "pos_52w": 70.0}, "S": {"duration": 21, "pricing": 45, "hard": 54, "bondness": 49}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 34%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 34%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.1%,稳定度 91%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.3%(经营现金流/市值 2.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.1%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 1.42 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 9.6 倍 粗算,约 48%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -6% / -30%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "史丹利:PE 比行业中位低 11.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.7个百分点。"]}}