{"F": {"ts_code": "002587.SZ", "name": "奥拓电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "LED", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110610", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.57, "pe_ttm": 224.2107, "pb": 2.7881, "dv_ttm": 0.8977, "total_mv": 364558.7837, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.8, 32.5, 36.2, 36.4, 33.9, 36.0], "rev_series": [8.2, 9.7, 9.2, 6.6, 7.2, 7.6], "np_series": [-1.5, 0.3, 0.2, 0.1, -0.4, 0.1], "roe_series": [-11.2, 2.5, 1.5, 1.0, -2.8, 0.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.6, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.2, "ocf_yield": 0.5, "gm_median": 36.0, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 1.5, "npm_median": 1.7, "roe_median": 1.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.8, "fix_assets": 1.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.79, "capex_dep": 0.5, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 28.8, "debt_mv": 1.1, "payout": 275.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -6.5, "np_cagr3": -19.6, "rev_yoy": 32.8, "np_yoy": 64.2, "np_vol": 184.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["LED视频显示系统", 41.0], ["LED显示系统-LED视频显示系统", 41.0], ["网点智能化集成与设备", 12.0], ["服务及其他", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 13.2, "ret_prev2_year": -29.7, "ret_ytd": -17.0, "ret_pivot": 5.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.5, "ret_60": -18.6, "ret_120": -21.7, "ret_250": -19.3, "mdd_250": -36.0, "vol_250": 39.5, "pos_52w": 71.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 60, "hard": 12, "bondness": 64}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 224.2 倍,估值里约 98% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 8%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 36.0%),硬资产占比 8%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.0%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 0.50 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 224.2 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -19% / -22%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "奥拓电子:PE 比行业中位高 162.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 16.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 23.6个百分点。"]}}