{"F": {"ts_code": "002586.SZ", "name": "围海股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "基础建设", "sw3": "基建市政工程", "ind": "基础建设", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110602", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.03, "pe_ttm": 16.9229, "pb": 1.4473, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 461122.1511, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [7.5, 14.5, 10.8, 8.9, 10.5, 10.2], "rev_series": [21.5, 25.8, 25.8, 21.3, 24.8, 20.9], "np_series": [-4.1, -0.3, -6.4, -1.4, -1.5, 2.7], "roe_series": [-11.6, -3.0, -21.2, -4.4, -5.0, 8.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.7, "np_ttm": 2.7, "ocf_ttm": -3.1, "fcf_ttm": -2.8, "fcf_yield": -6.1, "ocf_yield": -6.8, "gm_median": 10.5, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": 3.3, "npm_median": -7.0, "roe_median": -4.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.9, "fix_assets": 1.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.45, "capex_dep": -2.44, "interest_debt": 2.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 48.5, "debt_mv": 4.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -6.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -26.3, "np_yoy": -10.6, "np_vol": 293.8, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 70.0, "earn_yield": 5.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["其他工程", 19.0], ["市政工程", 9.0], ["河道工程", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 71.4, "ret_prev2_year": -29.0, "ret_ytd": -10.2, "ret_pivot": 132.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.2, "ret_60": 2.3, "ret_120": -20.4, "ret_250": 17.2, "mdd_250": -34.9, "vol_250": 38.7, "pos_52w": 77.8}, "S": {"duration": 34, "pricing": 44, "hard": 5, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 2.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 17 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 48%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 -6.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 3%,毛利率近 5 年中位 10.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.1%(经营现金流/市值 -6.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.5%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 -2.44 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.9 倍 粗算,约 70%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 17%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 2% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「基础建设」40 家中位:PE 11.7 / 股息率 2.3% / 毛利率 12.4% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 28%。", "围海股份:PE 比行业中位高 5.2倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点。"]}}