{"F": {"ts_code": "002585.SZ", "name": "双星新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "膜材料", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110602", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.87, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.2072, "dv_ttm": 0.2255, "total_mv": 1012353.1462, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.5, 32.9, 18.8, 4.4, -0.2, -1.2], "rev_series": [50.6, 59.3, 60.6, 52.9, 59.1, 51.1], "np_series": [7.2, 13.9, 7.0, -1.7, -4.0, -5.3], "roe_series": [9.0, 15.6, 7.3, -1.8, -4.4, -6.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 52.1, "np_ttm": -3.3, "ocf_ttm": 8.7, "fcf_ttm": 6.3, "fcf_yield": 6.3, "ocf_yield": 8.6, "gm_median": 4.4, "gm_std": 13.1, "gm_stab": -1.98, "gm_chg_2022": -3.7, "npm_median": -3.2, "roe_median": -1.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 49.6, "fix_assets": 61.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.21, "capex_dep": 0.31, "interest_debt": 16.0, "debt_ebitda": 3.3, "debt_ratio": 32.1, "debt_mv": 15.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -5.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 3.9, "np_yoy": 130.6, "np_vol": 82.1, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 41.0], ["光学膜", 18.0], ["光学材料膜", 18.0], ["聚酯功能膜", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": 26.8, "ret_prev2_year": -34.1, "ret_ytd": 32.2, "ret_pivot": 109.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.3, "ret_60": -28.6, "ret_120": 16.4, "ret_250": 53.2, "mdd_250": -49.3, "vol_250": 65.7, "pos_52w": 59.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 7, "hard": 79, "bondness": 31}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 50%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 4.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.3 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 50%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 4.4%,稳定度 -198%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.3%(经营现金流/市值 8.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 4.4%,稳定度 -198%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 50%,资本开支/折旧 0.31 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 53%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -29% / 16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "双星新材:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.7个百分点。"]}}