{"F": {"ts_code": "002583.SZ", "name": "海能达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信网络设备及器件", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110527", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.49, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 7.4014, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1544007.8706, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [47.6, 43.0, 46.7, 49.2, 48.3, 51.5], "rev_series": [61.1, 57.2, 56.5, 56.5, 61.4, 60.1], "np_series": [1.0, -6.6, 4.1, -3.9, -34.8, -2.6], "roe_series": [1.5, -11.2, 6.9, -6.4, -84.4, -11.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 60.1, "np_ttm": -3.1, "ocf_ttm": -1.7, "fcf_ttm": -6.1, "fcf_yield": -4.0, "ocf_yield": -1.1, "gm_median": 48.3, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -0.9, "npm_median": -6.7, "roe_median": -11.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.6, "fix_assets": 18.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 7.4, "capex_dep": 3.9, "interest_debt": 23.1, "debt_ebitda": 2.8, "debt_ratio": 78.5, "debt_mv": 15.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 2.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 0.1, "np_yoy": -54.5, "np_vol": 417.3, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 70.8, "fwd_pe2": 44.7, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 58.0, "peg": 1.22, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["终端", 26.0], ["系统", 16.0], ["OEM及其他", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": -20.3, "ret_prev2_year": 138.8, "ret_ytd": -25.0, "ret_pivot": 78.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.9, "ret_60": -8.5, "ret_120": -23.7, "ret_250": -40.0, "mdd_250": -44.5, "vol_250": 34.4, "pos_52w": 61.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 64, "hard": 28, "bondness": 26}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -3.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 78%,有息负债 23 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 48.3%),硬资产占比 18%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.0%(经营现金流/市值 -1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 48.3%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 3.90 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -40%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -8% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "海能达:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 19.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.4个百分点。"]}}