{"F": {"ts_code": "002582.SZ", "name": "好想你", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "休闲食品", "sw3": "零食", "ind": "休闲食品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110520", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.33, "pe_ttm": 2.8369, "pb": 1.0289, "dv_ttm": 5.7237, "total_mv": 462482.2607, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.2, 26.1, 22.8, 25.7, 22.6, 29.1], "rev_series": [30.0, 12.8, 14.0, 17.3, 16.7, 13.3], "np_series": [21.6, 0.6, -1.9, -0.5, -0.7, 8.7], "roe_series": [48.5, 1.2, -4.4, -1.2, -1.9, 22.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.5, "np_ttm": 16.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_yield": -1.5, "ocf_yield": 0.7, "gm_median": 25.7, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -2.4, "npm_median": -3.3, "roe_median": -1.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.0, "fix_assets": 8.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.03, "capex_dep": 0.88, "interest_debt": 10.4, "debt_ebitda": 11.0, "debt_ratio": 33.3, "debt_mv": 22.5, "payout": 30.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 2.6, "np_yoy": 3851.9, "np_vol": 590.5, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 0.0, "earn_yield": 35.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["红枣及相关类", 42.0], ["红枣制品", 42.0], ["其他类", 5.0], ["其他主营业务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 56.4, "ret_prev2_year": 31.8, "ret_ytd": -1.1, "ret_pivot": 244.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.1, "ret_60": 10.8, "ret_120": -1.8, "ret_250": 1.2, "mdd_250": -45.8, "vol_250": 46.8, "pos_52w": 66.3}, "S": {"duration": 7, "pricing": 50, "hard": 21, "bondness": 76}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 16.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 3 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 33%,有息负债 10 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 13%,毛利率近 5 年中位 25.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.5%(经营现金流/市值 0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.7%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 0.88 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 2.8 倍 粗算,约 0%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 1%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 11% / -2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「休闲食品」22 家中位:PE 21.1 / 股息率 2.9% / 毛利率 29.5% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 67%。", "好想你:PE 比行业中位低 18.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 17.9个百分点。"]}}