{"F": {"ts_code": "002579.SZ", "name": "中京电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "元件", "sw3": "印制电路板", "ind": "元件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110506", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.1, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.7537, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 863792.367, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.2, 18.0, 8.8, 11.1, 12.3, 16.9], "rev_series": [23.4, 29.4, 30.5, 26.2, 29.3, 31.4], "np_series": [1.6, 1.5, -1.8, -1.4, -0.9, 0.3], "roe_series": [8.1, 5.4, -6.5, -5.3, -3.6, 1.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 30.0, "np_ttm": -0.8, "ocf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_ttm": -2.2, "fcf_yield": -2.6, "ocf_yield": 2.4, "gm_median": 12.3, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.71, "gm_chg_2022": -14.5, "npm_median": -3.2, "roe_median": -3.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 52.3, "fix_assets": 36.0, "goodwill_ratio": 1.9, "pb_calc": 3.75, "capex_dep": 1.74, "interest_debt": 28.3, "debt_ebitda": 9.6, "debt_ratio": 64.0, "debt_mv": 32.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 0.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -8.9, "np_yoy": -591.4, "np_vol": 116.4, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["刚性电路板(含HDI板)", 38.0], ["刚性电路板", 38.0], ["柔性电路板及其应用模组", 14.0], ["其他业务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 54.2, "ret_prev2_year": -9.9, "ret_ytd": 15.8, "ret_pivot": 111.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.9, "ret_60": -7.8, "ret_120": 15.3, "ret_250": 1.6, "mdd_250": -53.6, "vol_250": 66.2, "pos_52w": 61.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 35, "hard": 84, "bondness": 34}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 52%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 12.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.5 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 9.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 52%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 12.3%,稳定度 71%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.3%,稳定度 71%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 52%,资本开支/折旧 1.74 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 2%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -8% / 15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「元件」67 家中位:PE 65.2 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 21.3% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "中京电子:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.4个百分点。"]}}