{"F": {"ts_code": "002575.SZ", "name": "群兴玩具", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "综合", "sw2": "综合Ⅱ", "sw3": "综合Ⅲ", "ind": "综合Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110422", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.5, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.2439, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 339075.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [55.6, 48.1, 18.8, 33.1, 4.5, 3.3], "rev_series": [0.9, 0.5, 0.8, 0.6, 3.7, 4.7], "np_series": [0.2, 0.2, 0.1, 0.1, -0.2, -0.3], "roe_series": [3.2, 2.5, 1.4, 1.1, -2.2, -3.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.2, "np_ttm": -0.6, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 2.0, "ocf_yield": 2.1, "gm_median": 18.8, "gm_std": 17.1, "gm_stab": 0.09, "gm_chg_2022": -36.9, "npm_median": 13.8, "roe_median": 1.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.2, "fix_assets": 0.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.24, "capex_dep": 0.29, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 9.5, "debt_mv": 0.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 76.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 27.3, "np_yoy": -184.8, "np_vol": 108.3, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["酒类销售", 43.0], ["酒", 43.0], ["智算业务", 7.0], ["自有物业租赁及创业园区运营服务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -25.0, "ret_prev2_year": 46.1, "ret_ytd": -11.0, "ret_pivot": 20.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.8, "ret_60": -7.1, "ret_120": -30.5, "ret_250": -39.7, "mdd_250": -51.2, "vol_250": 63.6, "pos_52w": 61.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 16, "hard": 4, "bondness": 1}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 10%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 2%,毛利率近 5 年中位 18.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.0%(经营现金流/市值 2.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.8%,稳定度 9%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -36.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 0.29 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -40%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -7% / -30%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「综合Ⅱ」20 家中位:PE 46.7 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 15.5% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 35%。", "群兴玩具:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.2个百分点。"]}}