{"F": {"ts_code": "002574.SZ", "name": "明牌珠宝", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "饰品", "sw3": "钟表珠宝", "ind": "饰品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110422", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.19, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.0169, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 274032.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.1, 11.6, 11.3, 12.5, 6.2, 5.6], "rev_series": [25.1, 35.8, 34.7, 39.4, 39.3, 32.8], "np_series": [-2.6, 1.4, -1.6, 1.6, 0.2, -3.6], "roe_series": [-8.3, 4.5, -5.4, 5.3, 0.6, -12.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 31.7, "np_ttm": -3.0, "ocf_ttm": -2.6, "fcf_ttm": -3.2, "fcf_yield": -11.8, "ocf_yield": -9.5, "gm_median": 11.3, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.74, "gm_chg_2022": -1.8, "npm_median": 0.4, "roe_median": 0.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.5, "fix_assets": 18.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.02, "capex_dep": 0.29, "interest_debt": 17.7, "debt_ebitda": 11.5, "debt_ratio": 54.9, "debt_mv": 64.6, "payout": 33.3, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -1.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -5.6, "np_yoy": 75.7, "np_vol": 858.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["珠宝首饰产品", 31.0], ["珠宝首饰", 31.0], ["房地产营销服务收入", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 21.9, "ret_prev2_year": -21.9, "ret_ytd": -7.7, "ret_pivot": 30.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 13.8, "ret_60": 12.1, "ret_120": -13.2, "ret_250": -11.9, "mdd_250": -46.6, "vol_250": 38.9, "pos_52w": 67.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 38, "hard": 49, "bondness": 47}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 30%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 11.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 11.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 30%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.3%,稳定度 74%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -11.8%(经营现金流/市值 -9.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.3%,稳定度 74%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 0.29 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 14% / 12% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饰品」15 家中位:PE 57.4 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 15.0% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 59%。", "明牌珠宝:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 27.9个百分点。"]}}