{"F": {"ts_code": "002571.SZ", "name": "德力股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "其他家居用品", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110412", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.63, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 6.089, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 455838.6641, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.9, 17.2, 16.0, 15.4, 10.8, 17.6], "rev_series": [7.8, 9.6, 11.2, 13.3, 18.6, 15.8], "np_series": [0.1, 0.1, -1.1, -0.9, -1.7, -2.6], "roe_series": [0.4, 0.6, -8.0, -6.7, -15.1, -27.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 15.2, "np_ttm": -2.7, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_yield": -1.5, "ocf_yield": 2.6, "gm_median": 16.0, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -1.9, "npm_median": -9.7, "roe_median": -8.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 53.5, "fix_assets": 14.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.09, "capex_dep": 1.1, "interest_debt": 9.6, "debt_ebitda": 9.5, "debt_ratio": 71.4, "debt_mv": 21.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 12.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -8.1, "np_yoy": -26.6, "np_vol": 542.8, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["酒具水具", 37.0], ["餐厨用具", 7.0], ["其他用具", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 186.8, "ret_prev2_year": -38.5, "ret_ytd": -1.1, "ret_pivot": 189.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.4, "ret_60": -2.2, "ret_120": -5.8, "ret_250": 48.3, "mdd_250": -26.4, "vol_250": 50.4, "pos_52w": 86.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 44, "hard": 86, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 54%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 9.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 54%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.0%,稳定度 85%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.5%(经营现金流/市值 2.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.0%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 54%,资本开支/折旧 1.10 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 48%,最大回撤 -26%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 87%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -2% / -6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "德力股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 21.9个百分点。"]}}