{"F": {"ts_code": "002569.SZ", "name": "*ST步森", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "服装家纺", "sw3": "非运动服装", "ind": "服装家纺", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110412", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.22, "pe_ttm": 277.7572, "pb": 52.8575, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 161579.22, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.1, 50.6, 44.0, 31.0, 27.2, 31.3], "rev_series": [2.5, 2.8, 1.5, 1.4, 1.3, 1.4], "np_series": [-1.5, 0.3, -0.8, -0.7, -0.5, 0.1], "roe_series": [-57.6, 17.8, -37.9, -53.4, -81.4, 22.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.7, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_yield": 0.2, "ocf_yield": 0.2, "gm_median": 31.3, "gm_std": 8.9, "gm_stab": 0.71, "gm_chg_2022": 23.0, "npm_median": -40.9, "roe_median": -37.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.0, "fix_assets": 0.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 52.86, "capex_dep": 0.43, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 81.3, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -3.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 55.6, "np_yoy": -27.3, "np_vol": 153.5, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["信息服务业", 29.0], ["信息服务", 29.0], ["外套", 8.0], ["西服", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 18.9, "ret_prev2_year": 39.2, "ret_ytd": -9.9, "ret_pivot": 74.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -14.0, "ret_60": -28.9, "ret_120": -24.6, "ret_250": 16.0, "mdd_250": -38.8, "vol_250": 46.3, "pos_52w": 63.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 52, "hard": 5, "bondness": 20}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 278 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 81%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 3%,毛利率近 5 年中位 31.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.3%,稳定度 71%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 23.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 0.43 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 277.8 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 16%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -14% / -29% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「服装家纺」60 家中位:PE 37.6 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 41.5% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 66%。", "*ST步森:PE 比行业中位高 240.2倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.1个百分点。"]}}