{"F": {"ts_code": "002566.SZ", "name": "益盛药业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "中药Ⅱ", "sw3": "中药Ⅲ", "ind": "中药Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110318", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.01, "pe_ttm": 62.5892, "pb": 1.0395, "dv_ttm": 1.1412, "total_mv": 231997.0716, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [74.5, 74.9, 73.9, 73.7, 74.5, 74.0], "rev_series": [8.4, 8.8, 8.3, 8.5, 6.7, 6.4], "np_series": [0.8, 1.0, 0.8, 0.9, 0.5, 0.3], "roe_series": [4.1, 4.7, 3.9, 4.3, 2.3, 1.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.5, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 4.3, "ocf_yield": 4.5, "gm_median": 74.0, "gm_std": 0.4, "gm_stab": 0.99, "gm_chg_2022": -0.6, "npm_median": 10.6, "roe_median": 3.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.0, "fix_assets": 3.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.04, "capex_dep": 0.19, "interest_debt": 4.7, "debt_ebitda": 6.1, "debt_ratio": 22.2, "debt_mv": 20.1, "payout": 63.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -8.3, "np_cagr3": -29.6, "rev_yoy": 3.3, "np_yoy": 43.0, "np_vol": 27.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 40.0], ["胶囊类产品", 20.0], ["针剂类产品", 12.0], ["针剂", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 13.7, "ret_prev2_year": -22.6, "ret_ytd": -7.2, "ret_pivot": 19.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.7, "ret_60": 4.6, "ret_120": -15.7, "ret_250": -14.7, "mdd_250": -35.1, "vol_250": 34.8, "pos_52w": 78.1}, "S": {"duration": 79, "pricing": 79, "hard": 21, "bondness": 64}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["轻资产现金牛"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 62.6 倍,估值里约 92% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 13%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 74.0%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.3%(经营现金流/市值 4.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 74.0%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 0.19 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 62.6 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -15%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 5% / -16%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「中药Ⅱ」68 家中位:PE 23.1 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 57.5% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 64%。", "益盛药业:PE 比行业中位高 39.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 16.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.4个百分点。"]}}