{"F": {"ts_code": "002565.SZ", "name": "顺灏股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "包装印刷", "sw3": "纸包装", "ind": "包装印刷", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110318", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.59, "pe_ttm": 158.7093, "pb": 4.9026, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 910530.551, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.5, 19.5, 22.3, 24.1, 25.5, 26.9], "rev_series": [16.0, 15.5, 14.1, 14.3, 15.2, 11.9], "np_series": [0.1, -0.3, -0.6, 0.3, 0.5, 0.6], "roe_series": [0.4, -1.5, -3.2, 1.5, 2.4, 3.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.0, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_yield": 1.3, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 24.1, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -2.1, "npm_median": 2.8, "roe_median": 1.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.6, "fix_assets": 3.9, "goodwill_ratio": 1.8, "pb_calc": 4.9, "capex_dep": 0.51, "interest_debt": 2.2, "debt_ebitda": 4.1, "debt_ratio": 24.2, "debt_mv": 2.5, "payout": 93.3, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -5.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -14.9, "np_yoy": -4.7, "np_vol": 213.9, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["镀铝纸", 18.0], ["印刷品", 15.0], ["其他主营业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 511.0, "ret_prev2_year": -9.7, "ret_ytd": -53.1, "ret_pivot": 249.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.7, "ret_60": -37.2, "ret_120": -34.9, "ret_250": 5.0, "mdd_250": -64.6, "vol_250": 73.6, "pos_52w": 37.5}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 49, "hard": 23, "bondness": 65}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 159 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 24%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.1%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 0.51 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 158.7 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 5%,最大回撤 -65%,年化波动 74%,现价在 52 周高点的 38%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -14% / -37% / -35%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「包装印刷」46 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 50%。", "顺灏股份:PE 比行业中位高 119.8倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 18.2个百分点。"]}}