{"F": {"ts_code": "002563.SZ", "name": "森马服饰", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "服装家纺", "sw3": "非运动服装", "ind": "服装家纺", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110311", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.84, "pe_ttm": 15.0322, "pb": 1.3726, "dv_ttm": 5.137, "total_mv": 1573348.6768, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.3, 42.6, 41.3, 44.0, 43.8, 45.1], "rev_series": [152.0, 154.2, 133.3, 136.6, 146.3, 150.9], "np_series": [8.1, 14.9, 6.4, 11.2, 11.4, 8.9], "roe_series": [6.9, 12.8, 5.6, 10.0, 9.8, 7.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 156.6, "np_ttm": 10.5, "ocf_ttm": 22.8, "fcf_ttm": 17.2, "fcf_yield": 10.9, "ocf_yield": 14.5, "gm_median": 43.8, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 1.0, "npm_median": 7.8, "roe_median": 9.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.5, "fix_assets": 21.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.37, "capex_dep": 3.86, "interest_debt": 5.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 33.7, "debt_mv": 3.7, "payout": 83.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.2, "np_cagr3": 11.9, "rev_yoy": 9.3, "np_yoy": 47.5, "np_vol": 55.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 67.0, "earn_yield": 6.7, "consensus_n": 22, "fwd_pe": 14.3, "fwd_pe2": 13.0, "fwd_g1": 5.0, "fwd_g2": 10.0, "peg": 1.43, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["儿童服饰", 57.0], ["休闲服饰", 21.0], ["休闲服", 21.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -17.7, "ret_prev2_year": 33.2, "ret_ytd": 14.1, "ret_pivot": 52.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.3, "ret_60": 8.1, "ret_120": 12.1, "ret_250": 15.0, "mdd_250": -25.5, "vol_250": 31.5, "pos_52w": 91.5}, "S": {"duration": 31, "pricing": 64, "hard": 20, "bondness": 76}, "label": "轻资产现金牛", "tags": ["现金流红利", "资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["固定资产占比 12%,毛利率近 5 年中位 43.8%,自由现金流/市值 10.9%:现金机器,久期短。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 43.8%),硬资产占比 12%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "久期短、无杠杆,加息期相对安全;放水期跑不过科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 10.9%(经营现金流/市值 14.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 43.8%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 3.86 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 15.0 倍 粗算,约 67%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 15%,最大回撤 -26%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 92%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / 8% / 12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「服装家纺」60 家中位:PE 37.6 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 41.5% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 66%。", "森马服饰:PE 比行业中位低 22.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.6个百分点。"]}}