{"F": {"ts_code": "002562.SZ", "name": "兄弟科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "食品及饲料添加剂", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110310", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.97, "pe_ttm": 44.1683, "pb": 1.5575, "dv_ttm": 2.0121, "total_mv": 567982.4843, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.5, 13.8, 25.3, 11.0, 15.3, 17.0], "rev_series": [19.2, 27.3, 34.1, 28.2, 34.4, 36.1], "np_series": [0.3, 0.3, 3.1, -1.8, 0.4, 1.0], "roe_series": [1.0, 0.9, 9.6, -5.5, 1.3, 2.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 38.6, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_yield": 3.0, "ocf_yield": 4.0, "gm_median": 15.3, "gm_std": 4.8, "gm_stab": 0.69, "gm_chg_2022": 0.8, "npm_median": 1.2, "roe_median": 1.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 62.2, "fix_assets": 38.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 1.56, "capex_dep": 0.15, "interest_debt": 15.7, "debt_ebitda": 2.5, "debt_ratio": 40.8, "debt_mv": 27.7, "payout": 111.1, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 1.9, "np_cagr3": -32.2, "rev_yoy": 13.8, "np_yoy": 51.9, "np_vol": 395.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["食品医药", 24.0], ["医药食品", 24.0], ["特种化学品", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 53.3, "ret_prev2_year": 5.3, "ret_ytd": -21.9, "ret_pivot": 57.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.0, "ret_60": 5.1, "ret_120": -26.7, "ret_250": -25.5, "mdd_250": -48.2, "vol_250": 45.4, "pos_52w": 61.7}, "S": {"duration": 67, "pricing": 40, "hard": 100, "bondness": 73}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 62%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 62%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.3%,稳定度 69%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.0%(经营现金流/市值 4.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.3%,稳定度 69%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 62%,资本开支/折旧 0.15 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 44.2 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 5% / -27%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "兄弟科技:PE 比行业中位高 8.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 27.7个百分点。"]}}