{"F": {"ts_code": "002561.SZ", "name": "徐家汇", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "一般零售", "sw3": "百货", "ind": "一般零售", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110303", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.28, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.4119, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 302675.464, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [57.3, 58.6, 51.0, 58.0, 54.9, 58.1], "rev_series": [5.9, 6.2, 4.8, 5.4, 4.4, 3.7], "np_series": [0.8, 1.0, 0.2, 0.8, 0.0, -0.2], "roe_series": [3.3, 4.6, 1.1, 3.4, 0.2, -0.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.6, "np_ttm": -0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": -7.1, "fcf_yield": -23.4, "ocf_yield": 2.2, "gm_median": 58.0, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -6.3, "npm_median": 6.5, "roe_median": 1.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.9, "fix_assets": 4.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.41, "capex_dep": 26.41, "interest_debt": 1.5, "debt_ebitda": 3.0, "debt_ratio": 15.7, "debt_mv": 4.9, "payout": 327.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -8.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -5.4, "np_yoy": -635.2, "np_vol": 222.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["商业", 50.0], ["产品销售", 24.0], ["租赁", 20.0], ["供应商服务", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": -4.1, "ret_prev2_year": -12.9, "ret_ytd": -17.1, "ret_pivot": 1.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.3, "ret_60": 5.7, "ret_120": -14.2, "ret_250": -18.4, "mdd_250": -38.7, "vol_250": 26.7, "pos_52w": 72.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 66, "hard": 25, "bondness": 64}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 16%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 58.0%),硬资产占比 16%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -23.4%(经营现金流/市值 2.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 58.0%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 26.41 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 27%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 6% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「一般零售」60 家中位:PE 60.7 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 34.2% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 51%。", "徐家汇:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 23.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点。"]}}