{"F": {"ts_code": "002560.SZ", "name": "通达股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "线缆部件及其他", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110303", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.22, "pe_ttm": 36.4009, "pb": 1.707, "dv_ttm": 1.1454, "total_mv": 457338.9974, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.6, 10.3, 8.0, 9.2, 7.3, 7.6], "rev_series": [19.3, 23.5, 55.0, 55.7, 62.0, 80.0], "np_series": [1.2, 0.2, 1.2, 0.8, 0.3, 1.6], "roe_series": [6.3, 1.0, 5.0, 3.3, 1.0, 6.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 83.0, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": 6.4, "fcf_ttm": 5.4, "fcf_yield": 11.9, "ocf_yield": 14.0, "gm_median": 8.0, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -7.6, "npm_median": 1.8, "roe_median": 3.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.4, "fix_assets": 10.0, "goodwill_ratio": 2.1, "pb_calc": 1.71, "capex_dep": 0.99, "interest_debt": 15.3, "debt_ebitda": 5.2, "debt_ratio": 49.2, "debt_mv": 33.5, "payout": 116.1, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 13.3, "np_cagr3": 9.8, "rev_yoy": 8.4, "np_yoy": -57.8, "np_vol": 262.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["铝板带产品", 30.0], ["铝板带", 30.0], ["特高压、超高压工程用线缆", 18.0], ["电力电缆", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 48.5, "ret_prev2_year": -4.3, "ret_ytd": -12.7, "ret_pivot": 76.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.5, "ret_60": -22.9, "ret_120": -17.8, "ret_250": 3.4, "mdd_250": -58.0, "vol_250": 56.4, "pos_52w": 48.2}, "S": {"duration": 60, "pricing": 38, "hard": 29, "bondness": 64}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 36.4 倍、股息率 1.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 8.0%、固定资产占比 18%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 18%,毛利率近 5 年中位 8.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 11.9%(经营现金流/市值 14.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.0%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 0.99 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 36.4 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 3%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -23% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "通达股份:PE 比行业中位低 7.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.5个百分点。"]}}