{"F": {"ts_code": "002559.SZ", "name": "亚威股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "机床工具", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110303", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.87, "pe_ttm": 70.8617, "pb": 2.3615, "dv_ttm": 0.716, "total_mv": 569333.0283, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.7, 25.5, 24.6, 26.0, 22.8, 21.5], "rev_series": [16.4, 20.0, 18.3, 19.3, 20.6, 22.8], "np_series": [1.4, 1.3, 0.1, 1.0, 0.8, 1.1], "roe_series": [8.2, 7.4, 0.4, 5.7, 4.3, 6.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.8, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 1.7, "ocf_yield": 3.5, "gm_median": 24.6, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -2.1, "npm_median": 3.3, "roe_median": 5.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.4, "fix_assets": 8.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 2.36, "capex_dep": 1.83, "interest_debt": 9.4, "debt_ebitda": 5.1, "debt_ratio": 54.9, "debt_mv": 16.5, "payout": 54.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.7, "np_cagr3": 141.6, "rev_yoy": -0.9, "np_yoy": -35.8, "np_vol": 498.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["金属成形机床", 39.0], ["激光加工装备", 10.0], ["智能制造解决方案", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 13.9, "ret_prev2_year": -21.8, "ret_ytd": -11.7, "ret_pivot": 29.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.4, "ret_60": -11.1, "ret_120": -12.8, "ret_250": -13.3, "mdd_250": -44.7, "vol_250": 48.0, "pos_52w": 57.7}, "S": {"duration": 83, "pricing": 51, "hard": 25, "bondness": 51}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 70.9 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 15%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.7%(经营现金流/市值 3.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.6%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 1.83 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 70.9 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -11% / -13%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "亚威股份:PE 比行业中位高 20.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.4个百分点。"]}}