{"F": {"ts_code": "002558.SZ", "name": "巨人网络", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "游戏Ⅱ", "sw3": "游戏Ⅲ", "ind": "游戏Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110302", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 27.67, "pe_ttm": 16.8457, "pb": 3.1257, "dv_ttm": 1.2233, "total_mv": 5258855.054, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [83.2, 84.9, 84.0, 88.9, 87.3, 91.0], "rev_series": [22.2, 21.2, 20.4, 29.2, 29.2, 50.5], "np_series": [10.3, 9.9, 8.5, 10.9, 14.2, 17.5], "roe_series": [11.8, 9.9, 7.6, 9.2, 11.6, 12.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 80.7, "np_ttm": 31.2, "ocf_ttm": 43.1, "fcf_ttm": 42.1, "fcf_yield": 8.0, "ocf_yield": 8.2, "gm_median": 87.3, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 0.9, "npm_median": 40.9, "roe_median": 9.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.9, "fix_assets": 8.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 3.13, "capex_dep": 2.17, "interest_debt": 6.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 17.1, "debt_mv": 1.2, "payout": 35.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 35.3, "np_cagr3": 27.3, "rev_yoy": 182.1, "np_yoy": 176.0, "np_vol": 18.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 70.0, "earn_yield": 5.9, "consensus_n": 23, "fwd_pe": 12.0, "fwd_pe2": 10.5, "fwd_g1": 41.0, "fwd_g2": 13.0, "peg": 0.92, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["移动端网络游戏收入", 47.0], ["电脑端网络游戏收入", 3.0], ["其他游戏相关业务收入", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 253.0, "ret_prev2_year": 17.0, "ret_ytd": -35.8, "ret_pivot": 218.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.7, "ret_60": 17.0, "ret_120": -21.5, "ret_250": -9.5, "mdd_250": -54.0, "vol_250": 53.0, "pos_52w": 54.3}, "S": {"duration": 34, "pricing": 86, "hard": 6, "bondness": 21}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["轻资产现金牛", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 176%,PE TTM 16.8 倍 但前瞻 PE 12.0 倍,PEG 0.92。", "自由现金流 42.1 亿(正),次年预期增速 13%(23 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 87.3%),硬资产占比 4%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.0%(经营现金流/市值 8.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 87.3%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 2.17 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.8 倍 粗算,约 70%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / 17% / -22%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「游戏Ⅱ」26 家中位:PE 24.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 60.8% / 固定资产占比 4% / 分红率 43%。", "巨人网络:PE 比行业中位低 7.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 26.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点。"]}}