{"F": {"ts_code": "002557.SZ", "name": "洽洽食品", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "休闲食品", "sw3": "零食", "ind": "休闲食品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110302", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.95, "pe_ttm": 20.1521, "pb": 1.9126, "dv_ttm": 5.1792, "total_mv": 958595.7935, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.9, 32.0, 32.0, 26.8, 28.8, 23.4], "rev_series": [52.9, 59.9, 68.8, 68.1, 71.3, 65.7], "np_series": [8.1, 9.3, 9.8, 8.0, 8.5, 3.2], "roe_series": [20.5, 20.6, 19.4, 14.9, 15.1, 5.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 73.3, "np_ttm": 4.8, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_yield": -1.5, "ocf_yield": 0.1, "gm_median": 28.8, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": 0.1, "npm_median": 11.9, "roe_median": 15.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.1, "fix_assets": 12.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.88, "capex_dep": 0.91, "interest_debt": 26.4, "debt_ebitda": 3.4, "debt_ratio": 44.0, "debt_mv": 27.6, "payout": 77.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.5, "np_cagr3": -31.2, "rev_yoy": 27.4, "np_yoy": 177.4, "np_vol": 28.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 75.0, "earn_yield": 5.0, "consensus_n": 26, "fwd_pe": 15.2, "fwd_pe2": 12.9, "fwd_g1": 33.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 0.84, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["葵花子类", 20.0], ["葵花子", 20.0], ["坚果类", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": -22.9, "ret_prev2_year": -15.1, "ret_ytd": -8.1, "ret_pivot": -24.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.1, "ret_60": -7.3, "ret_120": -11.4, "ret_250": -15.1, "mdd_250": -23.5, "vol_250": 26.7, "pos_52w": 81.5}, "S": {"duration": 40, "pricing": 53, "hard": 21, "bondness": 87}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 78%、股息率 5.2%、营收 3 年复合 -1.5%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.4 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 13%,毛利率近 5 年中位 28.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.5%(经营现金流/市值 0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.8%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 0.91 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.2 倍 粗算,约 75%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -15%,最大回撤 -24%,年化波动 27%,现价在 52 周高点的 82%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -7% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「休闲食品」22 家中位:PE 21.1 / 股息率 2.9% / 毛利率 29.5% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 67%。", "洽洽食品:PE 比行业中位低 0.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 17.8个百分点。"]}}