{"F": {"ts_code": "002556.SZ", "name": "辉隆股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "农业综合Ⅱ", "sw3": "农业综合Ⅲ", "ind": "农业综合Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110302", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.35, "pe_ttm": 25.6059, "pb": 1.3792, "dv_ttm": 2.7563, "total_mv": 500193.328, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [5.7, 7.9, 7.4, 4.8, 5.8, 6.3], "rev_series": [161.0, 190.8, 182.5, 178.3, 156.5, 151.3], "np_series": [2.2, 5.1, 5.1, 0.8, 1.7, 1.9], "roe_series": [7.8, 14.4, 12.9, 2.0, 4.6, 5.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 154.0, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 7.6, "fcf_ttm": 6.9, "fcf_yield": 13.9, "ocf_yield": 15.3, "gm_median": 6.3, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": 1.6, "npm_median": 1.3, "roe_median": 5.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.6, "fix_assets": 24.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 1.38, "capex_dep": 0.28, "interest_debt": 31.4, "debt_ebitda": 5.4, "debt_ratio": 67.0, "debt_mv": 62.8, "payout": 108.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -6.1, "np_cagr3": -27.6, "rev_yoy": 3.3, "np_yoy": 1.5, "np_vol": 79.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 3.9, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 23.3, "fwd_pe2": 18.7, "fwd_g1": 10.0, "fwd_g2": 25.0, "peg": 0.93, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["农资产品", 82.0], ["农副产品及其他", 12.0], ["精细化工产品", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 13.8, "ret_prev2_year": -2.1, "ret_ytd": -9.9, "ret_pivot": 28.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.4, "ret_60": 4.7, "ret_120": -21.9, "ret_250": -5.8, "mdd_250": -35.0, "vol_250": 31.6, "pos_52w": 77.6}, "S": {"duration": 47, "pricing": 41, "hard": 35, "bondness": 87}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 25.6 倍、股息率 2.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 6.3%、固定资产占比 22%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 22%,毛利率近 5 年中位 6.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 13.9%(经营现金流/市值 15.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.3%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 0.28 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.6 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -6%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 5% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农业综合Ⅱ」3 家中位:PE 72.2 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 18.4% / 固定资产占比 5% / 分红率 53%。", "辉隆股份:PE 比行业中位低 46.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.4个百分点。"]}}