{"F": {"ts_code": "002554.SZ", "name": "惠博普", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "油服工程", "sw3": "油气及炼化工程", "ind": "油服工程", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110225", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.88, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.0859, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 384111.3888, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.9, 30.5, 20.0, 16.4, 11.3, 12.4], "rev_series": [11.4, 15.9, 19.9, 35.3, 26.1, 23.3], "np_series": [-1.8, 0.9, 1.6, 1.1, -1.9, -3.7], "roe_series": [-9.0, 3.9, 6.6, 4.2, -7.9, -17.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 21.8, "np_ttm": -5.2, "ocf_ttm": -5.9, "fcf_ttm": -6.8, "fcf_yield": -17.8, "ocf_yield": -15.4, "gm_median": 16.4, "gm_std": 6.9, "gm_stab": 0.58, "gm_chg_2022": 0.1, "npm_median": 2.8, "roe_median": 3.9, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 8.5, "fix_assets": 4.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.09, "capex_dep": 2.21, "interest_debt": 26.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 66.9, "debt_mv": 68.0, "payout": 10.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 5.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -17.0, "np_yoy": -339.2, "np_vol": 149.2, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["油气工程及服务", 24.0], ["油气工程及技术服务", 24.0], ["油气资源开发及利用", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 27.1, "ret_prev2_year": -19.6, "ret_ytd": -9.7, "ret_pivot": 28.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.1, "ret_60": -7.7, "ret_120": -28.7, "ret_250": -4.3, "mdd_250": -46.6, "vol_250": 49.3, "pos_52w": 56.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 70, "hard": 14, "bondness": 21}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["商品定价", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -5.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 67%,有息负债 26 亿,经营现金流/市值 -15.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 16.4%),硬资产占比 8%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -17.8%(经营现金流/市值 -15.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.4%,稳定度 58%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 2.21 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -8% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「油服工程」14 家中位:PE 62.0 / 股息率 1.3% / 毛利率 14.7% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 35%。", "惠博普:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 16.3个百分点。"]}}