{"F": {"ts_code": "002549.SZ", "name": "凯美特气", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110218", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.82, "pe_ttm": 277.4887, "pb": 4.6796, "dv_ttm": 0.3618, "total_mv": 960970.7978, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.4, 41.9, 39.8, 22.2, 26.7, 33.7], "rev_series": [5.2, 6.7, 8.5, 5.7, 5.9, 6.3], "np_series": [0.7, 1.4, 1.7, -0.3, -0.5, 0.7], "roe_series": [7.4, 13.4, 14.3, -1.6, -2.5, 3.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.3, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_ttm": -2.1, "fcf_yield": -2.2, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 33.7, "gm_std": 7.5, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": 2.3, "npm_median": 10.9, "roe_median": 3.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 45.7, "fix_assets": 13.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.68, "capex_dep": 3.42, "interest_debt": 5.7, "debt_ebitda": 4.1, "debt_ratio": 28.0, "debt_mv": 5.9, "payout": 50.7, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -9.7, "np_cagr3": -25.5, "rev_yoy": 1.7, "np_yoy": -60.7, "np_vol": 129.7, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["二氧化碳", 26.0], ["氢气", 25.0], ["燃料类产品", 22.0], ["燃料", 22.0]], "ret_prev_year": 248.2, "ret_prev2_year": -37.5, "ret_ytd": -34.7, "ret_pivot": 121.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.0, "ret_60": -23.9, "ret_120": -30.7, "ret_250": -12.9, "mdd_250": -56.0, "vol_250": 64.8, "pos_52w": 48.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 53, "hard": 73, "bondness": 52}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 277 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 28%,有息负债 6 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 46%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 33.7%,稳定度 78%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.7%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 46%,资本开支/折旧 3.42 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 277.5 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 65%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -24% / -31%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "凯美特气:PE 比行业中位高 241.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.2个百分点。"]}}