{"F": {"ts_code": "002547.SZ", "name": "*ST春兴", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "其他汽车零部件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110218", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.6, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": null, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 293294.872, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [6.3, 10.8, 21.5, 14.4, 9.4, 8.5], "rev_series": [51.5, 26.7, 25.9, 23.3, 22.1, 22.3], "np_series": [-10.6, -10.3, -1.4, -2.5, -2.0, -4.4], "roe_series": [-48.1, -90.1, -25.6, -67.6, -136.4, null], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.1, "np_ttm": -4.7, "ocf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_yield": 5.2, "ocf_yield": 8.4, "gm_median": 10.8, "gm_std": 4.7, "gm_stab": 0.56, "gm_chg_2022": 15.2, "npm_median": -11.1, "roe_median": -78.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 40.3, "fix_assets": 16.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": 0.5, "interest_debt": 27.4, "debt_ebitda": 28.5, "debt_ratio": 112.9, "debt_mv": 93.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -4.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -2.2, "np_yoy": -21.3, "np_vol": 72.3, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 40.0], ["汽车零件", 17.0], ["汽车件", 17.0], ["精密铝合金结构件", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 14.2, "ret_prev2_year": -12.4, "ret_ytd": -44.3, "ret_pivot": -11.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.6, "ret_60": -21.2, "ret_120": -26.1, "ret_250": -44.9, "mdd_250": -73.2, "vol_250": 58.0, "pos_52w": 38.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 36, "hard": 64, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 40%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 10.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 15.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 28.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 40%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 10.8%,稳定度 56%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.2%(经营现金流/市值 8.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.8%,稳定度 56%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 15.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 40%,资本开支/折旧 0.50 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -45%,最大回撤 -73%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 38%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -21% / -26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "*ST春兴:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.8个百分点。"]}}