{"F": {"ts_code": "002545.SZ", "name": "东方铁塔", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "钾肥", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110211", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.85, "pe_ttm": 13.1481, "pb": 2.1422, "dv_ttm": 1.6807, "total_mv": 2220650.8485, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.5, 25.7, 36.0, 27.2, 27.4, 40.3], "rev_series": [26.5, 27.8, 36.2, 40.0, 42.0, 48.8], "np_series": [3.1, 4.0, 8.2, 6.3, 5.6, 12.1], "roe_series": [4.0, 5.1, 10.1, 7.4, 6.5, 12.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 57.8, "np_ttm": 16.9, "ocf_ttm": 26.0, "fcf_ttm": 23.5, "fcf_yield": 10.6, "ocf_yield": 11.7, "gm_median": 27.4, "gm_std": 5.8, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": 16.5, "npm_median": 15.8, "roe_median": 7.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.3, "fix_assets": 24.3, "goodwill_ratio": 2.9, "pb_calc": 2.14, "capex_dep": 0.86, "interest_debt": 8.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 30.6, "debt_mv": 3.7, "payout": 58.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 10.5, "np_cagr3": 13.5, "rev_yoy": 42.0, "np_yoy": 97.8, "np_vol": 56.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 62.0, "earn_yield": 7.6, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 12.7, "fwd_pe2": 10.9, "fwd_g1": 4.0, "fwd_g2": 17.0, "peg": 0.75, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["氯化钾", 31.0], ["角钢塔", 6.0], ["钢管塔", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 182.3, "ret_prev2_year": 2.9, "ret_ytd": -1.7, "ret_pivot": 243.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.4, "ret_60": -6.6, "ret_120": -34.1, "ret_250": 86.5, "mdd_250": -48.1, "vol_250": 59.7, "pos_52w": 60.2}, "S": {"duration": 28, "pricing": 53, "hard": 26, "bondness": 41}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 98%,PE TTM 13.1 倍 但前瞻 PE 12.7 倍,PEG 0.75。", "自由现金流 23.5 亿(正),次年预期增速 17%(8 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 16%,毛利率近 5 年中位 27.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 10.6%(经营现金流/市值 11.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.4%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 16.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 0.86 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.1 倍 粗算,约 62%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 86%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -7% / -34%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "东方铁塔:PE 比行业中位低 7.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 19.3个百分点。"]}}