{"F": {"ts_code": "002541.SZ", "name": "鸿路钢构", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "专业工程", "sw3": "钢结构", "ind": "专业工程", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110118", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.65, "pe_ttm": 18.6154, "pb": 1.4613, "dv_ttm": 1.323, "total_mv": 1454748.596, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.6, 12.6, 12.0, 11.1, 10.3, 9.9], "rev_series": [134.5, 195.1, 198.5, 235.4, 215.1, 220.7], "np_series": [8.0, 11.5, 11.6, 11.8, 7.7, 6.3], "roe_series": [14.6, 17.4, 15.0, 13.5, 8.2, 6.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 231.6, "np_ttm": 7.8, "ocf_ttm": 13.6, "fcf_ttm": -2.2, "fcf_yield": -1.5, "ocf_yield": 9.3, "gm_median": 11.1, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -1.6, "npm_median": 5.0, "roe_median": 13.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.9, "fix_assets": 83.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.42, "capex_dep": 1.9, "interest_debt": 112.7, "debt_ebitda": 5.0, "debt_ratio": 65.7, "debt_mv": 77.5, "payout": 32.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.6, "np_cagr3": -18.4, "rev_yoy": 10.3, "np_yoy": 52.2, "np_vol": 26.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 73.0, "earn_yield": 5.4, "consensus_n": 20, "fwd_pe": 16.0, "fwd_pe2": 13.3, "fwd_g1": 16.0, "fwd_g2": 20.0, "peg": 0.8, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["H型钢结构", 26.0], ["箱型十字型结构", 9.0], ["次结构", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": -6.5, "ret_prev2_year": -15.9, "ret_ytd": 27.8, "ret_pivot": 100.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.4, "ret_60": 24.5, "ret_120": -8.1, "ret_250": 15.9, "mdd_250": -34.3, "vol_250": 47.5, "pos_52w": 83.3}, "S": {"duration": 37, "pricing": 44, "hard": 45, "bondness": 51}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 18.6 倍、股息率 1.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 11.1%、固定资产占比 28%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 11.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.5%(经营现金流/市值 9.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.1%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 1.90 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.6 倍 粗算,约 73%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 16%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 83%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 24% / -8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专业工程」39 家中位:PE 40.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 13.6% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 38%。", "鸿路钢构:PE 比行业中位低 21.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.6个百分点。"]}}