{"F": {"ts_code": "002540.SZ", "name": "亚太科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铝", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110118", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.14, "pe_ttm": 21.5354, "pb": 1.1585, "dv_ttm": 3.4859, "total_mv": 641253.0874, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.5, 14.5, 14.0, 15.0, 13.2, 11.0], "rev_series": [39.9, 60.2, 67.3, 71.1, 74.3, 83.5], "np_series": [3.6, 4.6, 6.8, 5.7, 4.6, 4.3], "roe_series": [7.7, 9.5, 12.8, 10.1, 8.3, 7.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 92.8, "np_ttm": 3.0, "ocf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_ttm": -4.3, "fcf_yield": -6.8, "ocf_yield": -1.5, "gm_median": 14.0, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -2.5, "npm_median": 7.6, "roe_median": 9.5, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 36.5, "fix_assets": 33.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.14, "capex_dep": 1.05, "interest_debt": 19.2, "debt_ebitda": 3.1, "debt_ratio": 37.9, "debt_mv": 29.9, "payout": 96.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.5, "np_cagr3": -14.3, "rev_yoy": 25.0, "np_yoy": -61.5, "np_vol": 26.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["底盘安全系统铝材", 18.0], ["热管理系统铝材", 17.0], ["航空及其他铝材", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 21.1, "ret_prev2_year": 0.6, "ret_ytd": -26.6, "ret_pivot": 16.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.0, "ret_60": 3.2, "ret_120": -27.0, "ret_250": -25.3, "mdd_250": -42.8, "vol_250": 34.0, "pos_52w": 64.9}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 70, "hard": 58, "bondness": 76}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["现金流红利", "商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 33 亿,占总资产 36%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:铝 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -6.8%,股息率 3.5%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 77%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 36%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.8%(经营现金流/市值 -1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.0%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 1.05 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.5 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -25%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 3% / -27%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "亚太科技:PE 比行业中位高 1.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.0个百分点。"]}}