{"F": {"ts_code": "002539.SZ", "name": "云图控股", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "复合肥", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110118", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.4, "pe_ttm": 15.7995, "pb": 1.6384, "dv_ttm": 1.4925, "total_mv": 1618349.758, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.8, 18.5, 15.2, 10.2, 10.7, 11.8], "rev_series": [91.5, 149.0, 205.0, 217.7, 203.8, 214.0], "np_series": [5.0, 12.3, 14.9, 8.9, 8.0, 8.3], "roe_series": [15.0, 31.1, 24.5, 11.2, 9.4, 9.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 217.1, "np_ttm": 10.2, "ocf_ttm": 6.1, "fcf_ttm": -28.5, "fcf_yield": -17.6, "ocf_yield": 3.7, "gm_median": 11.8, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.73, "gm_chg_2022": -2.6, "npm_median": 4.0, "roe_median": 11.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 50.7, "fix_assets": 145.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.64, "capex_dep": 3.09, "interest_debt": 141.0, "debt_ebitda": 5.2, "debt_ratio": 65.2, "debt_mv": 87.1, "payout": 29.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.4, "np_cagr3": -17.9, "rev_yoy": 2.8, "np_yoy": 38.6, "np_vol": 64.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 68.0, "earn_yield": 6.3, "consensus_n": 15, "fwd_pe": 12.6, "fwd_pe2": 10.0, "fwd_g1": 25.0, "fwd_g2": 26.0, "peg": 0.48, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 41.0], ["新型复合肥及磷肥", 15.0], ["新型复合肥", 15.0], ["常规复合肥", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 56.6, "ret_prev2_year": -3.0, "ret_ytd": 15.3, "ret_pivot": 104.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.7, "ret_60": 14.6, "ret_120": -14.5, "ret_250": 30.4, "mdd_250": -41.1, "vol_250": 45.9, "pos_52w": 81.7}, "S": {"duration": 33, "pricing": 37, "hard": 81, "bondness": 53}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 51%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 11.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 5.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 51%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.8%,稳定度 73%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -17.6%(经营现金流/市值 3.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.8%,稳定度 73%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 51%,资本开支/折旧 3.09 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 15.8 倍 粗算,约 68%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 30%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 82%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 15% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "云图控股:PE 比行业中位低 5.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.1个百分点。"]}}