{"F": {"ts_code": "002538.SZ", "name": "ST司特", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "复合肥", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110118", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.95, "pe_ttm": 32.908, "pb": 1.1326, "dv_ttm": 1.7266, "total_mv": 593221.281, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.9, 28.6, 22.4, 16.3, 19.2, 13.3], "rev_series": [37.9, 39.9, 48.8, 39.1, 42.8, 46.6], "np_series": [2.9, 4.6, 5.3, 1.3, 3.1, 1.7], "roe_series": [7.5, 8.8, 10.6, 2.6, 6.1, 3.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 50.0, "np_ttm": 1.8, "ocf_ttm": 4.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 1.3, "ocf_yield": 8.3, "gm_median": 19.2, "gm_std": 5.3, "gm_stab": 0.73, "gm_chg_2022": 1.6, "npm_median": 7.3, "roe_median": 6.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.8, "fix_assets": 16.2, "goodwill_ratio": 4.7, "pb_calc": 1.13, "capex_dep": 2.7, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 19.7, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 65.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.5, "np_cagr3": -32.4, "rev_yoy": 15.4, "np_yoy": 15.9, "np_vol": 74.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["三元复合肥", 22.0], ["磷酸一铵", 18.0], ["矿资源类", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 17.1, "ret_prev2_year": -3.2, "ret_ytd": 10.3, "ret_pivot": 60.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.6, "ret_60": 17.6, "ret_120": -10.3, "ret_250": 28.2, "mdd_250": -31.5, "vol_250": 38.4, "pos_52w": 86.2}, "S": {"duration": 56, "pricing": 44, "hard": 40, "bondness": 56}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 32.9 倍、股息率 1.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 19.2%、固定资产占比 25%、资产负债率 20%:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 25%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.3%(经营现金流/市值 8.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.2%,稳定度 73%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 2.70 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 32.9 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 28%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 86%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / 18% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "ST司特:PE 比行业中位高 12.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.8个百分点。"]}}