{"F": {"ts_code": "002536.SZ", "name": "飞龙股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110111", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 58.26, "pe_ttm": 183.7975, "pb": 10.0569, "dv_ttm": 0.5149, "total_mv": 3348702.6534, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.9, 21.1, 17.8, 20.9, 21.5, 24.0], "rev_series": [26.7, 31.2, 32.6, 40.9, 47.2, 45.4], "np_series": [1.2, 1.4, 0.8, 2.6, 3.3, 3.2], "roe_series": [5.8, 6.4, 3.7, 9.5, 10.0, 9.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 45.9, "np_ttm": 1.8, "ocf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_ttm": -2.4, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": 0.6, "gm_median": 21.1, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -5.0, "npm_median": 5.9, "roe_median": 9.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.2, "fix_assets": 22.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 10.06, "capex_dep": 1.69, "interest_debt": 5.0, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 44.8, "debt_mv": 1.5, "payout": 60.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 11.7, "np_cagr3": 55.6, "rev_yoy": 2.0, "np_yoy": -64.0, "np_vol": 87.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 71.8, "fwd_pe2": 47.6, "fwd_g1": 156.0, "fwd_g2": 51.0, "peg": 1.41, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["汽车发动机热管理节能减排部件", 22.0], ["发动机热管理节能减排部件", 22.0], ["汽车发动机热管理重要部件", 19.0], ["发动机热管理重要部件", 19.0]], "ret_prev_year": 167.8, "ret_prev2_year": -14.9, "ret_ytd": 98.2, "ret_pivot": 607.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 47.1, "ret_60": 45.1, "ret_120": 56.3, "ret_250": 108.3, "mdd_250": -43.6, "vol_250": 76.9, "pos_52w": 92.4}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 46, "hard": 60, "bondness": 35}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 183.8 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 21.1%、固定资产占比 37%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 37%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 21.1%,稳定度 91%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.1%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 1.69 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 183.8 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 108%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 77%,现价在 52 周高点的 92%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 47% / 45% / 56%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "飞龙股份:PE 比行业中位高 153.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.7个百分点。"]}}