{"F": {"ts_code": "002535.SZ", "name": "林州重机", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "能源及重型设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110111", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.52, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.8149, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 202024.116, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.3, 6.1, 23.7, 28.5, 28.3, 25.3], "rev_series": [9.0, 4.5, 11.2, 18.4, 16.8, 11.3], "np_series": [0.4, -4.3, 0.2, 1.2, 1.0, -0.5], "roe_series": [4.6, -70.4, 4.3, 24.5, 16.2, -7.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.5, "np_ttm": -1.6, "ocf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_yield": 13.0, "ocf_yield": 13.1, "gm_median": 25.3, "gm_std": 8.3, "gm_stab": 0.67, "gm_chg_2022": 3.5, "npm_median": 1.6, "roe_median": 4.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.8, "fix_assets": 13.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.81, "capex_dep": 0.0, "interest_debt": 16.4, "debt_ebitda": 13.7, "debt_ratio": 84.7, "debt_mv": 81.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 0.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -30.5, "np_yoy": -219.3, "np_vol": 590.0, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["矿山机械", 29.0], ["煤矿机械", 29.0], ["矿建服务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 1.3, "ret_prev2_year": -17.5, "ret_ytd": -35.1, "ret_pivot": -22.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.1, "ret_60": 2.9, "ret_120": -33.2, "ret_250": -39.3, "mdd_250": -54.2, "vol_250": 39.6, "pos_52w": 55.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 46, "hard": 60, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 85%,有息负债 16 亿,经营现金流/市值 13.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.3%,稳定度 67%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 13.0%(经营现金流/市值 13.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.3%,稳定度 67%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -39%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 3% / -33%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "林州重机:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 19.8个百分点。"]}}