{"F": {"ts_code": "002533.SZ", "name": "金杯电工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "线缆部件及其他", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20101231", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.26, "pe_ttm": 13.3176, "pb": 1.8523, "dv_ttm": 3.9613, "total_mv": 826417.6786, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.3, 12.4, 11.5, 11.3, 10.4, 10.2], "rev_series": [78.0, 128.3, 132.0, 152.9, 176.7, 203.2], "np_series": [2.5, 3.3, 3.7, 5.2, 5.7, 6.0], "roe_series": [8.6, 9.8, 10.5, 14.0, 14.6, 14.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 228.5, "np_ttm": 6.2, "ocf_ttm": -1.9, "fcf_ttm": -4.0, "fcf_yield": -4.8, "ocf_yield": -2.3, "gm_median": 11.3, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -2.7, "npm_median": 3.4, "roe_median": 14.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.8, "fix_assets": 19.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.85, "capex_dep": 1.16, "interest_debt": 25.1, "debt_ebitda": 2.4, "debt_ratio": 64.3, "debt_mv": 30.4, "payout": 56.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 15.5, "np_cagr3": 17.4, "rev_yoy": 27.1, "np_yoy": 7.0, "np_vol": 14.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 62.0, "earn_yield": 7.5, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 12.2, "fwd_pe2": 10.7, "fwd_g1": 9.0, "fwd_g2": 14.0, "peg": 0.87, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电线电缆产品", 28.0], ["电线电缆", 28.0], ["电磁线产品", 22.0], ["电磁线", 22.0]], "ret_prev_year": 31.6, "ret_prev2_year": 34.8, "ret_ytd": -6.4, "ret_pivot": 49.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.2, "ret_60": 3.9, "ret_120": -24.4, "ret_250": -0.3, "mdd_250": -35.8, "vol_250": 39.3, "pos_52w": 70.8}, "S": {"duration": 28, "pricing": 44, "hard": 22, "bondness": 55}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 56%、股息率 4.0%、营收 3 年复合 15.5%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.4 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 11.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.8%(经营现金流/市值 -2.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.3%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 1.16 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.3 倍 粗算,约 62%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -0%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 4% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "金杯电工:PE 比行业中位低 30.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点。"]}}