{"F": {"ts_code": "002532.SZ", "name": "天山铝业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铝", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20101231", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.13, "pe_ttm": 8.7939, "pb": 1.8928, "dv_ttm": 6.4064, "total_mv": 6077532.3375, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.7, 22.8, 15.3, 14.1, 23.3, 24.4], "rev_series": [274.6, 287.4, 330.1, 289.7, 280.9, 295.0], "np_series": [19.1, 38.3, 26.5, 22.1, 44.6, 48.2], "roe_series": [18.5, 18.9, 12.0, 9.4, 17.5, 17.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 316.9, "np_ttm": 69.1, "ocf_ttm": 87.9, "fcf_ttm": 72.9, "fcf_yield": 12.0, "ocf_yield": 14.5, "gm_median": 22.8, "gm_std": 4.4, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": 1.6, "npm_median": 13.3, "roe_median": 17.1, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 58.1, "fix_assets": 301.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.89, "capex_dep": 0.81, "interest_debt": 100.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 38.0, "debt_mv": 16.5, "payout": 41.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -3.7, "np_cagr3": 22.0, "rev_yoy": 14.2, "np_yoy": 100.4, "np_vol": 57.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 43.0, "earn_yield": 11.4, "consensus_n": 18, "fwd_pe": 6.8, "fwd_pe2": 6.3, "fwd_g1": 30.0, "fwd_g2": 7.0, "peg": 0.97, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["销售自产铝锭", 35.0], ["自产铝锭", 35.0], ["销售氧化铝", 9.0], ["氧化铝", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 127.7, "ret_prev2_year": 47.9, "ret_ytd": -15.5, "ret_pivot": 137.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.9, "ret_60": 0.2, "ret_120": -27.5, "ret_250": 42.9, "mdd_250": -48.3, "vol_250": 53.6, "pos_52w": 65.4}, "S": {"duration": 20, "pricing": 70, "hard": 93, "bondness": 67}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["现金流红利", "商品定价", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 301 亿,占总资产 58%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:铝 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 12.0%,股息率 6.4%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 43%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 58%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 12.0%(经营现金流/市值 14.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.8%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 58%,资本开支/折旧 0.81 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 8.8 倍 粗算,约 43%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 43%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / 0% / -28%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "天山铝业:PE 比行业中位低 11.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 5.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 30.6个百分点。"]}}